Bi Senate Bid ‘neck and neck’

Opinion polls in Arizona suggest the USA may be about to get its first openly bisexual member of the Senate – with what would be a huge electoral swing.

Kyrsten Sinema was chosen as the Democrat candidate for strongly Republican seat Arizona in the summer – a seat the Democrats haven’t won since 1988.

In 2016 the Republicans won by 53.7% to 40.7% (1,359,267 votes to 1,031,245) despite losing the national vote in the Presidential election on the same day – so this is an area that we might consider votes about 15% more Republican than America does on average.

After incumbent Jeff Flake stepped aside, the seat is being contested by Kyrsten and a new Republican candidate, Martha McSally. A few days ago the Green Party’s nominee for the seat withdrew her candidacy and backed Sinema – the Greens took 5% in 2016 so that could prove a vital boost that gets Kyrsten across the winning line.

Opinion polls are showing the seat as variously a couple of points ahead for the Democrats or the Republicans from day to day, with psephologists* FiveThirtyEight suggesting that it’s a three in five chance of the Democrats taking the seat.  With one third of Senate seats up, and most of the ones up for election this time being either already held by the Democrats or being very strongly Republican seats, this is one of the few states that might switch from red to blue on polling day.

Election day is this Tuesday, November 6th with results coming in through the night into Wednesday.


* the proper word for political number-crunchers.